The Halifax House Price Index for June 2024 offers a comprehensive overview of the UK’s housing market, revealing a period of relative stability. Despite economic uncertainties and varying regional dynamics, the overall picture shows a market maintaining its balance.
Key Highlights
▪ Average House Prices: The average house price in the UK stood at £288,455 in June, marking a slight decline of -0.2% from May. This marginal decrease is equivalent to a reduction of less than £500.
▪ Annual Growth: The annual rate of house price growth remained steady at +1.6%, unchanged from the previous month.
▪ Regional Variations: Northern Ireland led the regions with the strongest annual house price growth at +4.0%, whereas Eastern England saw a decline of -0.9% over the past year.
Market Stability
Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages at Halifax, emphasised the current stability in the housing market. She noted that the slight monthly decrease does not overshadow the overall trend of year-on-year growth, which has continued for the seventh consecutive month. The UK property market has shown resilience, largely supported by a shortage of available properties rather than a surge in buyer demand.
Mortgage affordability remains a significant challenge for both new buyers and those nearing the end of their fixed-term deals. However, a gradual easing is anticipated through a combination of lower interest rates, rising incomes, and restrained house price growth.
Regional Insights
▪ Northern Ireland: Achieved the highest annual growth at +4.0%, with average prices reaching £192,457.
▪ North West England: Experienced a notable increase of +3.8%, bringing the average house price to £231,351.
▪ Scotland and Wales: Both regions saw positive annual growth rates of +1.6% and +2.7%, respectively.
▪ London: Remains the most expensive region with an average house price of £536,306, reflecting a modest annual increase of +0.9%.
▪ Eastern England: The only region to register a decline in annual house prices, down by -0.9%.
Housing Activity and Future Outlook
Housing market activity showed signs of recovery with a 2.4% increase in home sales in May 2024 compared to April. Mortgage approvals, however, slightly decreased by -1.4% in May, indicating cautious buyer sentiment.
Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain delicately balanced. While sensitive to interest rate changes, property prices are projected to rise modestly through the rest of 2024 and into 2025. This forecast aligns with the anticipated gradual improvement in mortgage affordability and continued stability in the housing market.
Conclusion
The June 2024 Halifax House Price Index highlights a period of stability in the UK housing market, underpinned by steady annual growth and regional variations. Despite ongoing challenges in mortgage affordability, the market shows resilience, supported by a shortage of available properties. As the year progresses, modest price increases are expected, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook for the UK’s housing market.
Author
Stephen Moss
